RUSSIA AND HIS FOREIGN RELATIONS – Conflictos Modernos

The Russia of Putin. 2nd. Part.

(FINAL)

In the great core of the Russian Federation, Putin practises an internal centripetal strategy. It is the complement of the expansive exterior strategy that we have just seen. Both form another pair of “complementary but not antagonistic opposites”. That can stem from the philosophy of the “dialectical materialism” (his core of ideas) and the historical one (his practical application and his evolution). This internal social strategy seeks to keep and extend the hegemony of the Slavonic oriental etnia, which is more than 85% of his population, and his centenial civilization. And incorporate into her everything possible of the ethnic and religious minorities of his geographical periphery. The Turkoman are 8,5%, the inhabitants of the Caucasus rise to 3% and those of the Urals, 2% of the population. Russia combines very well the strategic means at the disposal of the State, realizing with them combinations, «mixes», adapted to every external conflicting situation. For example, to uncontrollable countries with the USA, as some Spanish-American nations, he can offer them modern armament.

Putin bet for the Economy and the Diplomacy in Spanish America.

The president Putin is using all the resources and means of the global world, to extend with surprise, skill, conviction and security the influence of Russia all over the world. This way, in August of 2012 Russia stopped being the only world power out of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and turned to be the 156th partner of the institution. Which mediates in the conflicts between countries and establishes the basic procedure of the international trade. The equipment of the president Putin bet for the integration, to be between whom formulate the rules of game. And to have legal instruments against the protectionism, which stops the Russian exports to the European Union and the USA. The Russian secretary of Economic Development, Andrei Belousov, declared that the WTO gives instruments against the monopolies and the disadvantageous contracts and facilitates the participation in international projects. This way, he said, «it gives stability to the exterior trade and makes predictable the juridical conditions of the operators».

The central idea of this commercial penetration and his perspectives is that the USA never trusted in the Spanish-American armies, they did not even collaborate seriously with them. The applied cliche, even after pompous «Alliance for the Progress» of the president Kennedy, is that the Spanish-American armies are «minor partners» of the Pentagon. And, these armies must fulfill police-military local functions: to attack the insurgency, to monitor the borders, to control the territory. In the conference of Defense Secretaries of the countries of the Western Hemisphere celebrated in 2002 in Santiago of Chile, Donald Rumsfeld, secretary of Defense of the USA, declared: «One of the principal threats for the national security of the USA consists in the fact that the «Latin-American» governments cannot control his own territory, especially the remote, frontier territories. Of what the terrorists take advantage. Because of it, the task of every country of Latin America lies in strengthening the control of their own borders».

Resultado de imagen de Putin Erdogan Maduro in World Congress of the Energy in Istanbul

Till now, the Pentagon does not even propose to debate with the Spanish-American military men the creation of a system of regional security. The Inter-American Agreement of Reciprocal Assistance does not work, when it would be more important: in the conflicts of interests between the “high contracting parties», supposedly equal and associate. This remained demonstrated in the War of the Malvinas between Argentina and Great Britain. In that occasion, the USA and Chile supported Great Britain. Russia found this way a commercial and ideological niche, neglected by his more serious and nearby competitors. And where he is presenting a wide, interesting and permanent offer for an opened collaboration with his clients during an indefinite time.

The modern trade of Russian weapon and complex systems, his partial local manufacture, the temporal transfer of equipments and supplies, while this is not in march and the integral and constant formation of the users are the characteristics of the way decided by Putin, to increase the influence and the rooting of the Russians in Spanish America. A geopolitical zone that is distant and is very different of Russia in civilization. This way, the Russian vice-minister of Defense Anatoly declared that «Our external politic, is not only to sell products and finished equipments in the exterior, but to go to the joint production and develope the technician-military cooperation». He added that, » We are for it finalizing several documents, including the protection of the rights of intellectual property. The worry is that we will share reserved information. And the strategic association implies a major volume of the confidence, a major degree of cooperation, included the supply of weapon and special sensitive equipments. And this needs a certain level of the relations between both countries». Russia is the second weapon systems seller in the world.

The pirouettes of Vladimir, the new Czar of the «Only Russia».

The civil war of Syria was dangerously languishing from the last quarter of 2014. After three years and a half of the beginning of the conflict, the course of the war was determined by several different, simultaneous and synergics parameters.

Resultado de imagen de syrian army SYRIAN SOLDIERS SALUTE TO CAMERA.

The National Syrian Army of al-Assad was physics and morally exhausted. No more than 50 thousand men are now in his ranks.

The USA had intervened with few results, less opportunity and scanty commitment and decision in the conflict. Using the air ground support in favour of the moderate insurgents; facilitating them intelligence and punctual supports with limited aims of his elite forces. And successively training several groups or contingents of those, which were finishing, the majority of the times, joining the islamist radical insurgents. As the Front al-Nusrah for the Liberation of the Peoples of East, of Mohamed al-Golani, the delegate of al-Qaeda in Syria, now called Front Fatah al-Sham; the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria of al-Baghdadi; the Islamic Front anti al-Nusrah; the Army of the Conquest, who was operating at the east of Damascus, etc. And the USA was not daring to imply more in the civil war.

Resultado de imagen de russian bombers in syria RUSSIAN AIR BASE (SYRIA)

The unsteady and elusive politics of the USA in Middle East and concretely in Syria, created an «emptiness of power» that the Russian autocrat proposed to occupy. This time, he waited to assure him that the USA was not and they were not even waited there. In effect, the Americans neither had consistent allied rebels (with duration, stability and solidity, in conjunction) on Syria, nor were possessing own deployed forces. And the hereditary tyranny of al-Assad was, since the epoch of daddy Hafez, a systemic enemy of Israel and the USA. That included it in the list of destabilizing States of Middle East and sponsors of terrorists (Black September, Yasser Arafat’s al-Fatah, Hezbollah, etc.)

AL-FATAH’S COAT OF ARMS

Russia was seeking to justify a mediating and relevant paper in the damned board of the regional powers in the Southwest of Asia. Also his military intervention was going to assure an increased sponsorship on Syria, with the elevation of his military bases in the country to permanent. And neither the life, nor the personal and familiar sufferings of the Syrians were mattering for him, if they were converting into an obstacle to his political or military operational strategy in the defense of Bachar al-Assad.

This demonstrated, in a brutal and sociopath way, the degraded use of the heavy fire support that Russia gave to the attempts of al-Assad for recovering Alepo «at all costs». A siege without fissures (operational, not physical) of the city was not realized, nor an attack of combined forces to the irregular rebel forces that were surrounding and partially occupying her. The military Russian doctrine would praise this. But, the easy and sure thing was to shell up to the exhaustion the supposedly rebels positions. That were firmly intermingled with the houses of the upset neighbors of Alepo. But, destruction is almost metaphysically impossible. The buildings, walls and squares turn by the heavy fire in accumulated debris; these are grinded little by little in smaller debris; and, then, in stones and smaller stones. The same thing happens with the human bodies. And the rebels can slip away by tunnels, trenches and alleys between the walls of the buildings. But they do not take the civilians with them. And largely it is for the enormous logistic hindrance that they suppose for them.

Putin also receives «in kind» for the «favors and helps» that he grants. Russia is planing to increase the capacities of his naval base in Tartus, Latakia, Syria. That Russian will turn this way into a «naval permanent base» in the Mediterranean, fulfilling this way the dream of the Great Russia, previous to the USSR. The documents of transfer and installations are already prepared for his signature. The superstructure will possess docks, systems of detection, control and command and of anti-aircraft defense (against planes, drones and rockets) and antiships (of surface and submarines), stores, quarterings, etc. To all it is necessary to add the ground defense units of, his quarterings and warehouses, the fixed and of mines barriers, the network of roads and the advanced mobile and in prepared positions defense. This way, already at the beginning of October, 2016 there came equipments of the S-300 anti-aircraft Russian system, that deploys for the first time out of Russia. Also the nearby air Russian base in Hmeydin, one of that integrate the «network of bases for the air operations» in Syria, will be turned into an «air permanent base». To allow to increase the air sheltered fleet, her installations and her contingent for crew, support and defense.

Resultado de imagen de russian bombers in syria RUSSIAN BOMBERS HIT USA SPONSORED GROUND BASE IN SYRIA.

The meeting of the XXIII World Congress of the Energy in Istanbul, initiated on Monday, the 10th of October, 2016, allowed the bilateral meeting of the presidents Vladimir Putin and Erdogan. Russia and Turkey, from the middle of last July have brought over positions, smoothed the previous pitfalls and increased their collaboration bonds. Both presidents signed there the agreement for the construction of the Turkish Steam gas pipeline, which will join both countries across the Black Sea. And that will supply Turkey up to 63 billion m² of natural gas annual, when it is operative. The president Maduro, whom the president’s position and to exercise the succession of a «chavism» without Hugo Chávez are too great for him, did all possible during the summit conference to tie personal and institutional bonds with both chief executive men.

Erdogan assured that «Turkey will reinforce all the economic, energetic and of tourism bonds with Russia». His relations with the USA. and the European Union have substantially weakened in the last months. In spite of being Turkey a strategic ally of both within the NATO and of being a (eternal) candidate for the entry with full right in Europe.

Also Maduro celebrated his personal meeting with Putin. When in November, 2015 a Russian bomber was beaten on the northwest of Syria, close to the Turkish border, the Venezuelan governmental press took sides for Russia. Echoing the speculations on the incident and the accusation of Moscow that Erdogan was supporting in certain ways the ISIS. Given his systemic hatred with the Kurds of the YPG (the Kurdish Syrian party, to which he systematicly accuses of relations with the terrorist Kurdish PPK of the southeast of Turkey) and his pursuit of his «peshmergas» or Kurdish soldiers, who join the militias of self-defence of the Syrian Kurdish territory.

Resultado de imagen de Putin and Maduro Istanbul PUTIN WILL HELP MADURO AGAINST BAKERIES’ MAFFIAS…

The meeting was ending on Wednesday, the 12th of October. And, so much Putin as Maduro were waiting that in his conclusions and final record, was remaining clear a producers’ new alliance of crude oil («emergent countries»), which was seeking to stabilize the production of crude oil and his prices during a sufficient period of time. Some projections were overcoming a five years period.

These totalitarian, subsidiary States of Russia, need to affirm his identity, for questionable and/or perverse. And they do it replacing, in his cases, the real capacities of his mentor (military power, natural resources, armament industry) for a major radicality and a fervent enthusiasm in his attitudes and actions in the public thing or res publica. What takes them, in some moments, to flee ahead, without knowing well were they will come. The doubtful and/or contradictory attitudes and actions, in some moments, prove this. It suits to examine the erratic Turkish exterior politics in the last 4 years, in relation to al-Assad, the Kurds of the YPG and of the Autonomous Kurdish Region of Iraq, al-Qaeda, the collaboration with the USA and the Islamic State.

Only Putin keeps a line and a conduct enough constant and coherent in the public topics, exterior specially.

Resultado de imagen de russian bombers in syria RUSSIA USES CARPET BOMBING IN SYRIA.

The implication of the political and strategic interests of Russia in Syria has taken him to veto in the Security Council of the UNO, the recent offer of France for a ceasefire in Syria. Presented after the failure of the agreement of September, 2016 between the USA and Russia. That was aborted by the Russian bombardment of a marching group of humanitarian help from the Turkish border towards Alepo’s northwest. And by the bombardment of the USA to positions of the Syrian National Army (SNA) at the south-east of Zeir er Zour, the capital of province placed at Palmira’s North-East. And also motivated by the qualitative and quantitative accumulation of misdeeds against the civilians. Realized by the ground support aviation of Russia and Syria and by the Syrian heavy artillery. Against the neighborhoods at the west of Alepo and over the approximation routes to her, from the North-East (Idlib’s province) and the Turkish border, used by the rebels who fight in the city.

On the other hand, France insisted on treating with Russia the ceasefire in Syria. Which was out of the programmed topics for the visit of Putin to Paris at Wednesday, the 19th of October. And Russia answered on Tuesday, the 11th, by the spokesman of the Kremlin, that Putin «decided to annul the visit … and he will go to Paris when the president Hollande feels comfortable».

The Russia of Putin.

Russia reappears after the Dismemberment of the URRS.

The new Russia of Putin, after the difficult and undifferentiated parenthesis of Boris Yeltsin, is waking up from a traumatic transition to a formalist democracy. Not reflected yet in his structures of power and administration. After Yeltsin, the authorities had to be liberated of the «neocapitalist mafia oligarchy«. Which was looking for a political amorphous and of wide apex, specific «form», which was governing the country and was controlling the alternation of the parties, in more or less free elections. Into these ad hoc structures is transmuting the whole superviser and bureaucratic apparatus of the USSR, created throughout 70 years of ferreous dictatorship of the CP. For what it is not chance the professional origin and the mega presidentials manners of Vladimir Putin.

But that give to the new Russia an international creativity and an operational flexibility, that do not have his competitors more «calmed, formal and super regulated». He is what we would say of a good stylist boxer: «he has a great waist». Only to remember the «day of prayer and fasting for the peace in Syria», that proclaimed the Pope Francisco for September, 7, 2013. He accompanying for 4 hours the prayer in the Saint Peter Square that Saturday. Within a few hours, Putin proposed to the international Powers (including the inoperative UNO, which in the international conflicts only serves to give a hypocritical stamp of legality to the public things) the destruction «in situ» of the chemical arsenal of the Syrians of Bashar al-Assad and not his air bombardment. This took France and the USA with the changed foot. And to the Nobel prize of the Peace Mr. Obama, which had asked the support of the Congress for his Air Raid («necessary for the brutality of the Syrian Government with his population»), looking in anguish for supports between the legislators. Because he saw that they would rejecting up even his more moderate plans of intervention.

Resultado de imagen de putin helps al-Assad PUTIN HELPS AL-ASSAD’S REGIME…

The loss of his «controlled allies» of the Warsaw Pact and the COMECON, after the cold war, only left Russia to a geographically look for «new influences» towards the Asia Central, from Syria to the India and Vietnam. Turkey is a proverbial enemy of the Russians. Though now Erdogan, after knocking down a Russian ground attack plane on the northwest of Syria, has become a very friend of Putin. But this is relating to the moment, for not saying only anecdotal. China is a «partner, competitor and rival (not enemy)» of Russia, if serves this polyvalent definition, which does that none of the expressions are in fullness. In Afghanistan, the Russians could never have settled from the Modern Age. Also the Russians try to win and keep in his «political and commercial sphere» the new central Asiatic Islamic Turkman republics and the ex-Soviets Slavonic Republics. Till now, the Customs Union created by Russia includes only the White Russia and Kazajistan.

Resultado de imagen de putin xi jinping CHINA IS A «PARTNER, COMPETITOR AND RIVAL» OF RUSSIA.

Following his direct, imperious and operating manners, in the middle of December, 2013, Putin threw a strong argument to Ukraine. In order that she was happening to form part of this Russian Turkoman «sphere of coprosperity»: he offered her to lower 33% the price of transfer of the Russian gas, of which Ukraine is recipient and reseller. And, to save Ukraine from the financial bankruptcy and did not have to be thrown for it in hands of the European Community Troika, he would give her up to $15 billion in soft credits. While, in Ukraine the newly arisen social politic problems have led to a strongest polarization of the country. Two almost antagonistic halves being formed: where the part at the west of Crimea, wants to move away from Moscow and the half at the east of this peninsula seeks to grow the bonds with Russia.

Ukraine is for history and for demography a part of the Europe limited at the East by the Urals. And Ukraine is for political opportunity and historical moment part of the democratic and liberal Center Western Europe. That forms together with the United States, which operates as the other fundamental «vibrant pole» placed at the West side of the Atlantic Ocean, the «Western Civilization». A great problem appears now, not only to Ukraine, but to his neighbors in its eastern and western frontiers. And it is to obtain that the today antagonists and irreconcilable forces, that face in Ukraine, crushing his motherland, turn into complementary and necessary forces between them. And it is a great joint, disinterested labor, with broad-mindedness and directed by statesmen. Which is necessary to develop to achieve it and to remove the scarecrows that glimpse in his political social horizons. If there not be obtaining this «merger of interests», which is the mission of the Politics, the alternative would be bad for all, natives and nearby and distant neighbors. And the wound only would be falsely closed up and for an unforseeable time.

Resultado de imagen de novarrusia soldiers UKRAINE’S INFANTRY FORCES.

For Russia, Ukraine is something more than a strategic ally. As would be the Japanese Empire, the Western Europe or the Great Britain for the USA. Ukraine is a part of the national Russian essence. In Ukraine was born many hundreds of years ago, the strong and promising germ of the Russian nation, the Rus. From the fall of the USSR in 1989, Russia did not face a major disruptor cataclysm, potentially rupturist, that the Orange Revolution of Julie Timoshenko in 2004. Russia must have digested and neutralized or assimilated it, slowly and pacifically. But, the Ukrainian natives and his Russian allies chose to contain and to extinguish it.

It was the easiest thing, but they left a powerful embers under the cap of ashes. And the latent problem has re-arisen now, virulent and almost out of control. The «irresistible offers» of the European Union to Ukraine neither make concrete, certainly, they nor materialize. Beyond the reports and briefings of the European bureaucracy of Brussels and other cities, paralyzed, without imagination, or moral courage, which is selfprotected and automanages. By February 19 or 20, 2014 was generalized the use of “free shooters” or snipers of the police and the special security forces against the most uncontrollable demonstrators or emphasized from the popular revolts, specially in Kiev.

Resultado de imagen de novarrusia soldiers EAST UKRAINE IS IN DANGER…

Since then, the armed opposition of the Novarussia (this way the prorussians separatists autoname their territory in the Donbass’ basin and adjacent zones), supported by the Russians with military equipments (intermingled with convoy of supposed humanitarian help for the civil population of the region) and «groups» of voluntary internationalists, even veteran prorussians Chechenian; and the central government of Kiev, with the president Petro Poroshenko at its head, have followed an operational politic strategy of the “give and take”, of the cachumbambé or balancing pole. Where everything is enough measured and reasonably controlled, to be advancing each part by few and measured steps. Without they irreversibly get run away the animal of the open warfare between nations and alliances. And this way we are and we will continue for long time…

After realizing the armed manly act in Ukraine, the popularity of Putin raised in Russia. And it is kept consistently since then over 80 %… This is not normal in the democracies, if do not exist exceptional situations. Which are those in Russia? Putin has turned into a political social vibrant hub for the Russian people. To which he has recovered the national honor and the category of world power. At less, that is what Russians feel and caught… And though it would not be such, according his demographic and macroeconomic dates, if he was lacking the nuclear arsenal inherited from the USSR. But the emotions and then the feelings are those that create and send out the psychic energy. And they are capable of overcoming the dismay and the vulgarity of a little hard and gray life. And the Russian people wishes and bets for it. And Putin is now his leader, commander, great chief and guardian.

The National Strategy of Putin.

But, not all are kindness and advantages in a super presidentialist regime. The concentrated and decisive power has to be administered in small doses, to not abuse, nor damage, nor to fall down in the temptation of looking for his indefinite continuity. The despotism (that arises from the rotten conviction of the controls from which «they» have «saved» «their» Motherland), the corruption and the clientelism spread over the circles of the power and his outskirts. And they become manifest and customary in the society.

The political and ideological opposition, with his critiques, parliamentary actions and street protests, can become almost unbearable for those who center in planning, deciding and executing in altars of the people, but not with the people. The jail and the confiscation of goods are reprisals of all the life. Which origin gets lost in the times night, in the prehistory, for the dissidents, uncontrollable and disobedient and for all the potential (imagined or not) and real enemies of the regime.

Another «appearance» of democracy that the Russian government exhibits: when the exercised power is almost all-embracing, it is not balanced or compensated by other public independent powers and is held during too much time, turns out to be almost inevitable the appearance of the self-complacency, the corruption, the indifference and the arrogance in many controls that were originally correct.

Russia, at least during a time, will try to recover his rights, traditions and influences. Or it will have to content with turning into a “nation State», without dependent, participative and profitable for all partners «coprosperity spheres”. That «regional or second-class power», as Obama named her at the beginnings of this crisis at the beginning of 2014.

Russia, once known himself as the Second Rome, follows a national, centrifugal, expansive strategy towards the exterior, from her «vibrant European space«. Leaving from that great «national center of the Slavonic etnia» and acting in “waves of communication, influence and domain”, in this order, Russia is straining in extending his presence and ascendancy all over the world, going towards all the possible countries.

Resultado de imagen de russia the second Rome A BUST OF THE PRESIDENT AS CAESAR, ROME EMPEROR OR CZAR, RECEIVES THE SALUTE…

One of the first national exterior aim of Putin is to promote the «multipolarity in the world structure» of the great powers and his allies. Looking that does not exist a world hegemonic power as the USA, which hinders him in the extension of his influence and power from his «core center». For it, Russia will create alliances and will establish agreements and treaties with third parties in detriment or in substitution of that hegemonic power. And he will be a «intransigent obstructionist actor» in all the actions that that one unilaterally promotes in the international forums (UNO, Atomic International Energy Agency). This way, the actions of the western nations in the Syrian conflict are frustrated and limited by the systematic veto of Russia to its approval in the Security Council of the UNO.

Another great strategic preference of Putin is to extend his influence and enlarge the economic and diplomatic bonds with the nations in development, specially those who have «natural resources and primary crops», that are necessary for the manufacturing production, the supply and the general development of the nations. This has taken them and will take them even far beyond of his geographical borders of political or strategically military influences. Using the economy, one of the forces of the national strategy or great strategy of a country, helped by the diplomacy, another one of her potentials, Russia tries to create with the emergent countries «cores of action and shared prosperity». Initiated or cultivated in a world that Russia wishes and search that is «multipolarized» in diverse «cores and centers of geopolitical power». That reduce this way necessarily, by his mere existence, the influence of the great western powers, today «depending of the world trade «.

This national and civilizer geocentrism places Russia as central piece of the Eurasia megacontinent. Where only China might hinder him in his plans of recovery of the lost influences. At the west of China, next with his Sinkiang’s immense region (Xinjiang), in the Eastern Turkestan, is a rosary of ancient Socialist Soviet Republics of 2 thousand Kms of length, which reaches up to the oriental shore of the Caspian Sea. They are, from east to west, Kazajistan, Kirguistan, Tadzikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. And these countries form a monolithic set of several etnias, picked up in their names, but extended simultaneously over several countries, of Turkoman origin, of the central steppes of Asia, and also agglutinated by his belonging to the sunni Islam. All this forms a multinational defensive and refractory shield to the expansive activity and to the significant presence of the Chinese in his internal matters or in his exterior trade, that have political guardianship effects. These Turkoman Muslims are rather a potentials allied of the Great Russia. In all that he puts a bit of dedication and neatnessI in attract and attend them.

Resultado de imagen de Putin xI jINPING sign gas deal PUTIN AND XI JINPING SIGN THEIR NATURAL GAS DEAL IN PEKING.

With his habitual opportunity and operational agility, Putin signed with the president Xi Ji Ping on Wednesday, the 21st of May, 2014 a strategic contract (30 years of validity) to supply China with 38 billions of ms3 of Russian natural gas each year. Certain is that the negotiations of this transcendental contract have extended during a decade, but the opportunity of his signature for both partners is undeniable. Russia has determined his signature lowering a little the price of transfer, which has not leaked out, and that was the principal obstacle for the agreement between the Russian state entity Gazprom and the National Corporation of the Oil of China. It will be begun immediately the installation of a new gas pipeline between Siberia and China, which will cost $ 55 billion and which will be operative in 4 years. China obtains this way a stable supply of part of his energetic primary needs (about 25 %). Which will allow him to be reducing his strategic dependence of his national coal. Whose combustion is the principal generating one of the massive pollution that suffer nowadays the great cities and the industrialized coast of China. It is calculated, according to the official estimations, that China will need 400 billions of ms3 of gas by 2020, doubling the current consumption of gas. Which opens the possibility for new extensions of the Russian supply in the frame of this agreement. For his part, looking for alternative markets for his primary energy, Putin reduces transcendency and efficiency with this commercial operation to the stuttering actions of the European Union, to replace part of the supply of the Russian gas, using other hypothetical suppliers of across the seas. And, in addition, any strangulation of the current service to his buyers, will force the EU to increase his help to Ukraine, to compensate his «reduced income» for the passage of the gas along his territory.

(TO BE CONTINUED)